The permafrost ground is that in areas like Siberia , is permanently frozen (hence the name, permanent - permanent and - frost, ice cream). Occasionally, I get a frozen mammoth, a brontosaurus bone arrowheads or upper Pleistocene. Now that
permafrost and is neither permanent nor frozen. It seems that climate change is beginning to soften the ground and turn it into a kind of vast sea of \u200b\u200bmud in which more aperecerán mammoths more fibulae of brontosaurus, and more arrowheads. Now we can call " Avecesfrost ."
a couple of years ago, on the occasion of three trips to Siberia I got to see the famous frozen Siberian steppes from the plane. That was when I managed to forget that I was aboard a Tupolev of Aeroflot made in the seventies, and we could fall at any moment. There were leaks (no exaggeration) and reassuring noises. Beside a Spanair flight is a Ferrari ride . The show was awesome , although know that scares aircraft could fall into the area where the last time you saw a human being could have for centuries. And that could end up buried in the sea of \u200b\u200bsticky mud making company to the mammoth where I might find within 7,000 years and scientists argue over the remains of my beautiful jersey of navy cashmere.
Now I have not to worry: Europe, U.S. , Japan, Asia ... Worldwide melts under our feet in a debacle with their only precedents in the stock market crisis of 1929 and 1987 (the October 19, 1987 the DJ fell more than 26%, or is that there is still fabric.) No I have to go to Siberia and get on an old plane that had to go on vacation Tsar Nicholas II to be buried in a thick, sticky mud.
say this financial crisis is only comparable to the Great Depression of the 30's. However I see major differences: For example in 1929 the bankers committed suicide by jumping from the roofs and upper floors of buildings in Lower Manhattan . If they had buried in the nearby Battery Park , now that would be a tourist attraction, not just a tiny oasis in the city and the site where you take the ferry to Liberty and Ellis Island .
But now the bankers take advantage of the debacle to go on holiday on account of the companies that have collapsed. For example, executives of AIG spent a weekend half a million euros in a hotel a few days ago. The Belgian Fortis , more spartan, were limited to a meal in the most expensive hotel Montecarlo by the tightest figure of 150,000 euros: Security in the end managed to close a menu for all to share with them first out cheaper. There is no way to think about shareholders, savers and taxpayers in general belt-tightening in these moments of uncertainty.
is also what must have thought AIG executives " If you have a manicure and pedicure without the new Patek Philippe platinum going to give us the bank is "
As I write this the IBEX 35 falls by 9.5% to below 8,900. Other major European indicators also fall to lead, and DJ yesterday and the Nikkei tonight have been just panicked. The measures being taken are useless because investors think that if they take it because there are far worse back. And if nothing is done, they also think that nothing is done to stop this. In short, money is a coward as they say: money is a shit scared shitless fleeing by foot to a minimum. And I guess it does well: maybe the best mattress on top of a steering Wall Street asking Petrus 1995 at a company account and provides up by the suckers who have paid.
a positive note might be that low oil prices ... but is that the gas hardly move. The excuse of the oil companies is that their stocks are purchased at high prices a few weeks ago, but when it goes up you do not say they have bought at the lowest price previous cheap: It seems that the Chinese had little hidden suppliers and connected to internet , which raised the price of unleaded 95 each time the oil price rose a penny. Now with the crisis, is shed from the Chinese suppliers and no one to download.
Finally fixing things, the IMF predicts a recession in Spain in 2009 which represents a drop of our nominal GDP of 0.2%, in line with countries such as Italy, UK or Ireland. And contraction is extremely serious if not from there in 2010, takes strength to grow back. But in 2010 will our leader cosmic ZETAPAD I "The Pathetic" in power (of course I hope that in addition to ZETAPAD I ZETAPAD also be last) and his deputy Solbes "The pert." That means that in 2010 in Spain will not be made real. It also means that ZETAPAD will not be called to the mountains where things are decided: Our beloved leader is making friends around the world, and so it goes.
So we should not be overly optimistic: In play in the Champions League of the world economy just a year ago, are now trying to stay in first division. Moving to Italy in GDP per capita ... continue to forward only because they make it even worse. And it is terrible to say this, but I think I prefer the Prime Minister to ZP that Berlusconi: At least we do not touch the ass of the Members who are good at their discretion old green.
theory and practice say the crisis is not in itself a bad thing, but something has to come cyclical to cleanse the system. But as we learn (or learn too well), what happens now is just the evolution of what happened in 1987. In this horror stock, which were paid excess characters like Michael Milken or Ivan Boesky , the kings of junk bonds from Drexel Burnham Lambert flooded the bond market as toxic as subprime mortgages now we drown. The new mechanisms have been more sophisticated, but have exploded in four Idaho sad farmers have stopped paying mortgages on their farms.
And in Spain? Well, I do not know how many subprime mortgages in Spain, but does not that sound to give 120% of the appraised value of a house for the purchase of a BMW and go to their holy / or vacation to Cancun or another site where could find up to reponedor of Carrefour ? For all that (also the BMW and travel) must be paid now price Euribor mortgage updated. And if you now have to pay twice as much as three years ago, and did not arrive ... because you're the lucky owner of a beautiful subprime mortgage . I know it.
The permafrost melts under our feet. Nothing new under the sun, on the other.
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